This is now Sea The Stars' objective following the heavy rain that caused him to miss the Irish Derby. However, there is a similar forecast for the South of England on Thursday evening/Friday (am advised of torrential thundery downpours, which may cause localised flooding, as the heatwave is bought to an end) and so I do wonder if he will turn up.
Those bookie chappies bet - Evens Sea The Stars, 7/2 Conduit, 9/2 Rip Van Winkle, 10/1 Cima de Triomphe, 16/1 Archipenko, Twice Over, 25/1 Westphalia, 66/1 Jukebox Jury, Monitor Closely, Tazeez, 100/1 Steele Tango, 200/1 Set Sail, Lang Shining, Malibu Bay
Should be an intriguing contest. At this stage I'm leaning slightly towards Sir Henry's Twice Over who has on a couple of occasions this term gone close to Group 1 glory. 16/1 seems far too big to my good self. Maybe this will be his day?
I really can't see anything beating the fav here, assuming he turns up. 1m 2f surely too short for Conduit, and no reason why Rip van Winkle would turn the form around.
After that you're into a bunch of horses who have tried and failed too often (at the top level) for my liking, exception might be the Cima de Triomphe beast but I don't know too much about him.
I really do wonder if Sea The Stars will end up running. The forecast is for terrible thunderstorms at the end of the week (OK, so we all know weather forecasts are often wrong but its 30 degrees C in the South of England at the moment and if anything is likely to trigger bad thunderstorms its such temperatures).
If they do arrive and lead to a deterioration in the ground there is no way that connections will run him.
The race is a no bet at this stage purely due to the debate whether STS runs or not.
If he runs, he wins.
If not, I''ll go for RVW, who I think will be ideally suited by 10f. Plus all the 3yos are getting 10lbs+ from the older horses. _________________ I bet Jamie is the only one in the Spencer household that gives a bad ride!
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This looks a race to get involved in now as the doubts about Sea The Stars making the trip and Conduit definitely being under priced for a trip that doesn't really suit make some of the others quite good value.
I would suggest RVW, Archipenko and Westphalia are all potential winners of this and are genuinely under estimated. I don't know enough about Cima De Triomphe.
Its highly likely to cut up and I can see it being a small field, steady gallop followed by a sprint which plays perfectly into the hands of Archipenko and Westphalia. I can only really see RVW or Conduit having a chance if O'Brien employs similar riding tactics to those used in yesterdays Irish Derby. _________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
I know it’s the official weight for age scale, at this time of the year, and its been around for years and years but the concession of 11 pounds does seem an awfully large amount and seems to my good self to favour the 3 year-olds rather more than the older brigade.
definitely. I remember in years gone by they used to say that the King George at the end of July was a great time to go to war with a 3yo against his elders as the concession was large at that time of year. I didn't realise it was so large this early, but I guess that makes sense - pretty sure the weight for age concession decreases as the year goes on.
Here's one to ponder. What older horse could give StS 11lb and a beating? I can't think of any.
Obviously I mean at the distances in question, 1m to 1m 4f. So Yeats doesn't count as an answer!
I think a high class 3 year-old from now to the York August Festival will always have the upper hand over 8-12 furlongs given the weight concession. In my opinion the weight for age scale is too generous towards the younger brigade up until York but by September has rather levelled out into a more even playing field because of the decreases.
I guess if Sea The Stars does turn out (incidentally we've had a really, really big thunderstorm here this morning which has really cooled things down and if it makes it to Sandown Park the course will get a good soaking) I guess we will start to gauge his true worth as he competes against other generations. Maybe the answer to your question is Sir Henry's Twice Over, old boy?
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