Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:23 am Post subject: St Leger system
I've posted this system before as it has picked the winner every year at least as far back as Moonax at 40/1 with the exception of 1 year where there were no qualifiers and last year when Conduit missed out on being a qualifier by a 3/4 of a length. Anyway, last years reversal hasn't put me off so I will stick with it again.
The system reads - "must have already won a Class 1 race over 11-12f prior to end of June (basically up to and including the Irish Derby) or run well in two such races (run well means beat half the field or lost by less than 10 lengths). Will not have run over further than 12f prior to the St Leger."
I'll post the qualifiers at the end of June.
With regard to the current favourite Fame & Glory, I can't see him turning up for this. Winning the St Leger turns any horse in to a NH sire and consequently has less value. Coolmore only send horses they are convinced aren't quick enough for 1m4f. _________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
Just for clarification regarding the system - the performances between the end of June and the Leger count for nothing then, apart from the distance thing?
Correct JR. The thought behind the system is that you identify thorough stayers with class and maturity in the first half of the season when the classics are being run. All 3yo staying races after the Irish Derby are very inferior and therefore misleading in terms of the final classic.
As I said the system has worked very well for years and I think the logic behind it still holds true. Because it goes against almost everyones logic in terms of recent form the prices of the winners have been pretty good.
I now place my Leger bets in July chucking out those that have won Gr1s as they never turn up (reduces their stud value). _________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
There can't be many Class 1 races over 11-12f before the end of June though can there? That means the list must always be fairly short and worth real considration after throwing out those that will not be targeted at the Leger. Look forward to seeing the results
Exactly. The list will include trials such as the Lingfield & Chester Derby & Oaks trials, all of the Derbys and Oaks plus Ascot races such as the King Edward Stakes. Notably it excludes all of the recognised St Leger trials. As you say the list is usually short as winners of the Derby's don't turn up. Few fillies try as well. _________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
First update on the St Leger system now that all the qualifying races are complete. This is just the list for the colts. I need to check out for fillies.
Sea The Stars - won Derby
Fame & Glory - won Irish Derby
Masterofthehorse - ran well in Derby, Irish derby and Chester Vase
Golden Sword - Won Chester Vase (also ran well in Derby & Irish derby)
Father Time - won King edward VII stakes (and ran well in Lingfield derby trial)
Age of Aquarius - Won Lingfield Derby Trial
Alwaary - Won Cocked Hat Stakes (Goodwood derby trial)
The first two will not turn up so the initial short list is the following five horses
Masterofthehorse, Golden Sword, Father Time, Age of Aquarius & Alwaary.
I'll add girls in later _________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
This is interesting reading tetinj.
I personally have a decent record in the Leger (much better than any of the other classics for sure, I can't remember picking a Guineas winner since Russian Rhythm) but have never thought of any "system".
Sixties Icon, Lucarno, Brian Boru, Milan, I bet all of these, and I'm sure there are more. Maybe it's because form is a lot more established by the time the Leger comes along.
good post matey, will keep an eye out for your next update.
Sariska (won the Oaks)
Midday (won the Lingfield Oaks Trial)
Perfect Truth (won the Chester Oaks)
Flying Cloud (won the Ribblesdale)
July Jasmine (ran well in Ribblesdale & Lingfield Oaks)
Entries were made today but a list isn't available as yet so I will review tomorrow to see if there are any winners of foreign qualifying races. One such addition to the colts is Mastery who won the Italian Derby.
Full qualifying list at present reads:-
Masterofthehorse, Golden Sword, Father Time, Age of Aquarius, Alwaary, Mastery, Sariska, Midday, Perfect truth, Flying Cloud & July Jasmine. _________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
can't imagine Sariska going to Donnie, for same reasons as talked about with the top top colts.
I don't recall too many fillies winning the Leger of late - User Friendly won but that wasn't exactly yesterday.
Anyone confirm the ladies' recent record? Not even sure too many take their chance to be honest.
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