Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2009 7:59 am Post subject: Ante-post policy
What are forumites views/plans on ante-post punting re the Cheltenham Festival??? As and when you spot value between now and March, a pre-defined set out staking plan, nothing until a set date, a back to lay policy, following the views of experts or no ante-post bets whatsoever???
As regular readers of the Chuckle will be aware for a few years I used to follow a staking plan but I think the death knell for that was when the market on the morning of the races became so strong (note I say morning and not SP). Katchit's win in the 2008 Champion Hurdle was the classic example as the biggest odds that he ever was in the 6 months preceding the race was on he morning of the said heat!
My approach last year was to mainly snap up value when I perceived it to exist but I must say I missed, at times, the more disciplined approaches of a staking plan plus there is the added risk of staking/number of bets getting out of hand. So far this time around my sole involvement has been to take 33/1 about Walkon for the 2010 Champion Hurdle (did it shortly after 2009 Triumph) on the grounds that it appeared, to my good self at that stage, far too large.
With 7 months to go and now that those bookie chappies have opened markets on getting on for 10 races I would be very interested to hear how others plan to operate re the Festival.
You know Barney your spot on re the Strength of the market, come the morning.
The value, due to the competition is increditable, and also with Best Odds Guaranteed on the day (Bet365), it oftens makes Anti Post betting difficult. _________________ I bet Jamie is the only one in the Spencer household that gives a bad ride!
Daily Premiership Champ - April, June, Sept & Oct 2008, May, Sept 2009
Weekend Champ - Dec 2008, Jan, Feb, May, July, Aug, Sept 2009
Daily Championship Champ - Dec 2008
Based on a similar thread last year I argued, and came to the conclusion, that there is very little value in the Ante Post markets offered by the bookies.
For every live horse at a decent price there were ten or more that weren't. If the thread is still there have a look at the markets for the championship events back in Oct/Nov 08. The majority never lined up and most were bigger prices on the day.
My plan this year will be to try and avoid any bets prior to the festival unless the intention is to trade them and take a profit prior to the race. My ratings have often identified good value bets but not often the actual winner. _________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
yes I'm in same camp now lads, due to such threads from your good selves. To be honest I can't resist the odd wee bet in advance, but my ante post policy is much much less than it used to be too.
So far for next year I have a single on Dunguib, and a treble with he, Binocular and Big Bucks.
Small stakes only though.
It was an interesting practice last year to look at the early markets, and as others have pointed out, the best practice to use them is for those willing to trade as prices contract, and in effect to become bookmaker yourself.
I have long subscribed to the old rule that you back horses that have won previously at the festival, so to pick those with this winning form now and follow them for small stakes could be profitable.
The one that seems to fit this category at the moment, is old favourite Katchit. We know all about him, and despite a below par season he stil managed to race on into 4th in the CH. I hope and expect a slightly easier campaign this year for him, something like Fighting Fifth, Christmas Hurdle, Kingwell then the Champion...level weights races, not handicaps, so he is produced fit and ready for the big day.
i must say Alan King didnt do the horse any favours last season did he?
I'd only be inclined to go Anti Post for horses who are going to be guarenteed short prices, examples being Kauto, Masterminded, and possibly Binocular and Big Bucks
At this point in time I'd say Big Bucks would be my idea of the best festival bet. Whilst I think Kauto and Master Minded will also win, I think their prices are short enough, and Kauto especially wouldn't be likely to shorten up much.
Big Bucks to me will only shorten shorten shorten between now and March.
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