Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2009 8:14 am Post subject: Tour de France 2009 Preview
Here are my thoughts on the upcoming Tour: -
Contenders (Yellow Jersey)
Alberto Contador - He is the man to beat, he basically can do everything. The only question mark would be his performance at Paris-Nice and the fact that potentially not all of his teammates will be pulling in the same direction.
Lance Armstrong - Lance is my all-time favourite cyclist for what he went through and subsequently achieved. Legend. As much as I would love to see him go head-to-head with the other contenders in the race I get the feeling that he will turn into an awesome protector of Contador during the last week in the mountains.
Cadel Evans - The nearly man of the tour with second place itis. I think his best chance was last year, and again with no teammates to support him during the uphill stages he will have to fight his own battles, which I think will possibly lead to podium position again.
Denis Menchov - An interesting contender. As won all the major tours apart from this one. He just seems to make silly mistakes in the race by getting caught out in the wrong groups when the split up and he loses minutes rather than seconds, which you just can’t do. If he can keep himself near the front and out of trouble then he is a definite threat to Contador.
Frank Schleck - I think Frank is very talented but I just don’t believe he is strong enough to claim victory and he will end up supporting his younger brother later on in the tour.
Andy Schleck - The younger of the brothers and the one who has a serious amount of talent. Watching him last year you could tell he was stifled by team orders and that cost him a high overall position. He is definitely one who could blow the race wide open as he has the ability to attack and attack again when they are going up and he will put them in a lot of trouble.
Levi Leipheimer - If Levi had to choose he would side with Lance over Contador, and that has to be a worry for Contador as Levi is a terrific rider in his own right and can break apart a race on the big mountain stages. Don’t forget he is very good at the time-trial so will be able to keep himself in contention well into the final week.
Carlos Sastre - Amazing to think he won last year. He just managed to put enough time between him and Cadel going into the final time trial. I think this was more of a mistake on Cadel’s part rather that Sastre doing it right. Don’t be fooled by that though, Sastre is very consistent in all the tours and has to be a major player again this year.
My Top Five: -
1st Alberto Contador
2nd Andy Schleck
3rd Denis Menchov
4th Carlos Sastre
5th Cadel Evans
Others Worth Noting (They may surprise a few and may be allowed to ride away one day when the main contenders are watching each other)
Vladimir Efmkin & Tadej Valjavec - Both finished in the top 10 last year so they may be watched slightly more than the others, but no reason why they can’t repeat their feats of last year as they will be watching out for themselves as there are no team orders.
Yury Trofimov - A talented Russian who rides for the Bbox team.
Andreas Kloden, Yaroslav Popovych & Haimar Zubeldia - Three strong domestiques from the amazing Astana squad. On their own they could cause a lot of trouble but as they will be reigned in by team orders their time will be spent looking after their leaders.
Rigoberto Uran - A young talented Colombian rider who rides for the Caisse D’Epargne team. Without Valverde he will be given licence to attack and could be the next great Colombian rider following in the footsteps of Heras etc.
Amael Moinard - He surprised many with his fantastic 14th place last year. Cofidis will be after much of the same from him as they don’t have much else to shout about.
Kim Kirchen & Michael Rogers - Two riders from the very strong Columbia team who will be looking at a good GC placing. Kim has the better chance as he has proved in recent years.
Mikel Astarloza & Igor Anton - These two will carry the hopes of the Euskatel team, however the team manager has promised different tactics this year so we may see a few more orange shirts getting involved. Mikel can easily ride himself into the top ten and Anton has the potential to win any of the mountain stages and maybe an outside bet for the polka dot jersey.
Christian Vandevelde - A bad fall in the Giro will not have helped his preparations but he clearly retains ability and will be one rider that the main contenders will have to keep an eye on. The opening TT however will not suit him so he will probably have some deficit that he will have to try to peg back once the roads start going up.
Vladimir Karpets - He is the leader of the Katusha team and is their main gc hope, but he’s probably going to finish top 20 rather than top 10.
Linus Gerdermann - Had a great 2007 but has not lived up to that potential since. Probably best keeping a watchful eye on him this year.
Stijn Devolder - He came into last year’s race as one of the riders to watch, but due to ill health prior to it he did not fair so well. He could surprise a few.
Young Riders (White Jersey)
Robert Gesink - This young Dutch rider does not have to look after Menchov in the mountains, so he could be the man to be on for the King of the Mountains as he has bags of talent.
Dan Martin - This young Irishman is attempting the tour for the first time and he has already shown his potential with his second place to Valverde in Catalonia. He will have to ride for Vandevelde though so maybe this year
Sprinters (Green Jersey)
Mark Cavendish - The obvious favourite is our very own Manxman. The guy is not the tallest so this just makes him extremely aerodynamic and a cut above his rivals. The big question for Mark is though getting over those mountains. He has not finished a major tour yet and I’m not convinced he will do it this time. It takes a number of years for a sprinter to master the art of getting over the mountains and I just think maybe it’s a year too early for Mark. If he does though he is guaranteed to take the green jersey!!
Oscar Freire - The current holder of the green jersey is a pretty safe bet to be in contention again. The guy is just ultra consistent and will pick up minor points each day even if he’s not riding great. He will be the main threat to Cavendish and it would be great if the pair are fighting out in Paris on the final stage for the title.
Thor Hushovd - The big man is getting on a bit now and you have to think that something would have to go amiss with the main two for him to have any chance of take the jersey. He has the possibility to win a couple of stages though as he is a very powerful man when he gets up a head of steam.
Gerald Ciolek - The former leadout man for Cavendish is no mean sprinter himself so will be an intriguing battle as to how the position themselves leading up to a sprint finish. He could win the green jersey, but he will need help.
Daniele Bennati - He won the points competition at last year’s Giro, so he could prove to be a challenger this year. I am not convinced he is the quickest of riders but is very consistent so will continue to pick up points along the way.
Tyler Farrar - This young kid may upset Cavendish on his day as he has raw speed. Watch out for him early on as he may be putting all his efforts in then as can’t see him making it over the mountains.
Honourable Mentions (Talented Riders)
Christophe Moreau - This will be Christophe’s last tour so he will be hoping to have one last good day in the mountains to thank all his fans. I think it will be more of getting away early on a big mountain day for lots of tv exposure and then getting reeled in on the last climb, but we shall see. Can’t descend for toffee so keep an eye on him on the descents!
Cyril Dessel - A wily Frenchman who does seem to get himself attached to a lot of successful breaks. Will try to win a stage for AG2R who have had a poor season.
David Moncoutie - Another Frenchman who if anything has flattered to deceive on more than one occasion. Can easily ride away on his own on an intermediate stage so will be interesting to see how he fares and can get that stage win which will be his obvious goal.
George Hincapie - The veteran American will be looking to nip away up the road one day and use all his experience to nab a stage win. I hope he does manage it as there can’t be that many miles left in those old legs.
David Millar/David Zabriskie/Bradley Wiggins - All three ride for the Garmin team the latter two will be trying to win the individual time trials, although the profiles of both stages don’t suit them. Millar will attempt to get in a breakaway and win a stage.
Jens Voigt - This big man seems to have been around for decades. Always willing to bury himself for the team’s sprinter, or ride at the front of the train on the start of the big mountains. One of the all time great domestiques. Again, he might get chance to get away one day and attempt to claim a stage.
N.B. This was done prior to Boonen being allowed to ride, so Allan Davis drops out. Will be interesting to see how Boonen does as he's still one of the world's best sprinters and gives Cav someone else to think about.
Great preview mate. I'm about to watch the prologue so I haven't seen any action yet.
It'll be so interesting to see how things play out with Astana. Amazing how they've got two past winners and two past podium finishers (Kloden and Leipheimer) in their team. Will Lance really be willing to sacrifice himself for Contador? I'm not so sure. I'd be surprised if he retains anything near the same scary ability he had for his 7 wins, but he's such a brutal competitor I can't see him not going for wins in the mountains. Can't wait to see what happens!
Agree with you about Evans, last year was his big chance and his team are too weak for him to win this year I reckon, especially as the team time trial is back.
Andy Schleck should be up there for a podium. Saxo Bank look to have a really strong team actually even without Sastre this year. It's probably Contador's for the taking though... he is still young and should have improved even from 07...
Dan Martin is out with tendinitis which is a real shame, but there is another Irish lad in there, Nicolas Roche for AG2R, Martin's cousin and none other than the great Stephen's son! Good to see some new Irish riders competing at this level.
Cav should win a nice handful of stages, no one could touch him last year, although might not have it so easy this time with Boonen back and Farrar who I dont know much about. I actually think Cav will make it through the mountains this year, he's sounded pretty determined and the last two attempts it wasnt even in the gameplan to finish. I see Gert Steegmans has also left QuickStep and should be the main sprinter for Katusha now so it we'll see if he can produce anything, I remember him being in Boonen's shadow in the past.
Moncoutie is always a great shout for a breakaway win somewhere, think I saw odds somewhere of about 5-1 for him to win a stage this year which wasnt bad I thought.
Cracking route this year I think, more focus on mountains than time trials which makes it more exciting imo. Can't wait for the Mont Ventoux stage, hope it's still up for grabs by then!
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