RaceHorseHeroes

jackane24 · Joined: 08 Jan 2008 Posts: 893 Location: Windsor

Azertyuiop vs. Isio - Well Chief vs. All the rest. 2 brilliant reasons why changing the former VC Chase into a Grade 1 was a ridiculous idea. The VC Chase offered us brilliant weight carrying performances, nail biting finishes, and the chance for the lesser horses to beat the established stars.

But the powers that be have decided to turn it into a Grade 1, a baffling and sad decision. Is it really worthy or needy of its new status?

The 2 mile chase scene has always been built around 3 races. The Tingle Creek, Queen Mum Champion Chase and Punchestown Champion Chase. The very best have had the opportunity to have a prep for the Queen Mum in either the VC Chase or Game Spirit, while having (usually) relatively easy races.

Upgrading the VC to a Grade 1 does absolutely nothing to help the National Hunt season. It simply means that the favourite or second favourite for the Queen Mum will have a canter round and pick up a Grade 1 at the end of it. And looking at the odds for this year's debut race, it's hard to argue with that prognosis.

Twist Magic trades at 4/6, and it's hard to find any real challengers for the win. Mansony and Ashley Brook trade at 4/1 and 10/1 respectively, but are they genuine Grade 1 horses? Me no think so.

Mansony seems to be one of these fairly decent Irish chasers who picks up a few Grade 1s in Ireland because of the weak competition. Hi Cloy, Central House, Fota Island. We've seen them all before. And we have another one just around the corner in Schindler's Hunt, who trades at 12/1 for the new chase.

Ashley Brook has failed on so many occasions since his novice days and I'm not willing to take a chance on him. His race record doesn't lie and his only win over the past 2 1/2 seasons came over hurdles.

So, let's put the race back in its former format. A handicap.

Twist Magic on 173 carries 11-12.
Mansony & Tamarinbleu on 159 carry 10-12. A stone less.
Hoo La Baloo carries 10-11.
Ashley Brook carries 10-10.
Jack the Giant carries 10-4.

This is now looking like a proper race. And what a shame we're being denied of it.

Mahogany Blaze looks a decent EW punt at 16s, but I can't see anything challenging Twist Magic for the win.

Your thoughts?

DunfieNags · Joined: 09 Jan 2008 Posts: 1069 Location: Dunfermline

couldn't agree more jack. I posted a similar reply to a similar thread on the old place.
How many wil bother to take on Twist Magic now? We'll end up with a daft 3 or 4 runner race no doubt Sad

thedrever · Joined: 09 Jan 2008 Posts: 257 Location: Kent

There are very few Grade 1 2m chases in the calendar so I would say a new Grade 1 like the Clarence House is a good thing, but a shame we have got to lose the best 2m handicap chase of the year in the VC to accomodate it. Surely there was room for both races in the calendar between the Tingle Creek and the Champion Chase?
As for the race this year, Twist Magic is the obvious winner. Mansony may give him a race as he is on the upgrade and beat Nickname and Schindler's Hunt over Christmas. I really liked Schindler's Hunt last year (he won two Grade 1 2m Novice chases in Ireland) but he missed out on a place in the Arkle field because of an administrative error. But not sure he has quite enough speed. The 2m horse I really want to see run again on good ground is Accordion Etoile.

jackane24 · Joined: 08 Jan 2008 Posts: 893 Location: Windsor

comeonkauto · Joined: 09 Jan 2008 Posts: 455 Location: Belfast

I think there is Jack, I agree with thedrever. I think it is right there is another grade1 2m chase in the calender, but im also dissapointed its taken the place of the VC.......surely there is room for both?

jackane24 · Joined: 08 Jan 2008 Posts: 893 Location: Windsor

No I don't think there is room. The problem is that with the Game Spirit just 3 weeks later, you can hardly make that a Grade 1. It takes all the competitiveness out of the VC because connections want to go for the Grade 1.

There's absolutely no shortage of Grade 1 2 mile chases. The Dial a Bet 2 mile chase in Ireland over Christmas has only recently been made a Grade 1. The Melling Chase may be over 2m 4f, but a lot of 2 mile chasers step-up in trip for that. You've got the Grade 1 John Durkan over 2m 4f as well.

Adding to the Tingle Creek, Champion Chase and Kerrygold Champion Chase, that's 4 Grade 1s over 2 miles and 2 over 2m 1/2 miles.

thedrever · Joined: 09 Jan 2008 Posts: 257 Location: Kent

A disappointing turn out for a grade 1 chase, but the Tingle Creek rarely has more than 8 runners. I'm sure we would have seen a few more runners had it remained a handicap, but the quality probably wouldn't have been as good.
Anyway, still an interesting race with some potential Cheltenham clues despite Twist Magic being a 2 to 1 odds on favourite. I believe the ground at Ascot is currently good to soft, but with rain forecast this week it could be soft or heavy by Saturday which is what we don't want as then we'll see even fewer horses run. As the race stands Twist Magic is the obvious winner, but Schindler's Hunt may be the each way value in my opinion.

jackane24 · Joined: 08 Jan 2008 Posts: 893 Location: Windsor

7 runners. 7 bloody runners. See if these numbers ring a bell - 10, 10, 13. They're the number of horses who contested the last 3 runnings of the VC Chase. More competitiveness, more value, more interesting, more exciting. There were probably another 10 runners over those 3 years either scared off by Azertyuiop or Well Chief, or by the race moving to Sandown.

Twist Magic should be giving away close to a stone on Saturday. Pauntey Gofa should be getting 67lbs (4 stone 11lbs). What a farce they've turned this into.

1 2/12F-F5 Ashley Brook (IRE) 42 Distance winner 10 11-7 K Bishop P J Brennan 157
2 413142 Hoo La Baloo (FR) 23 Course and Dist winner 7 11-7 P F Nicholls L Heard 158
3 1211-21 Mansony (FR) 23 Distance winner 9 11-7 A L T Moore C O'Dwyer 150
4 431P48 Pauntley Gofa 12 Distance winner 12 11-7 Mark Gillard T J Phelan 106
5 1F25-53 Schindlers Hunt (IRE) 23 Distance winner 8 11-7 D T Hughes R Loughran 149
6 1P6-311 Tamarinbleu (FR) 35 Course and Dist winner 8 11-7 b D Pipe T Scudamore 159
7 12F1-11 Twist Magic (FR) 42 Distance winner 6 11-7 P F Nicholls R Walsh 173

Betting Forecast: 8/13 Twist Magic (FR), 7/2 Mansony (FR), 10/1 Schindlers Hunt (IRE), 12/1 Ashley Brook (IRE), 16/1 Hoo La Baloo (FR), 16/1 Tamarinbleu (FR), 250/1 Pauntley Gofa

jackane24 · Joined: 08 Jan 2008 Posts: 893 Location: Windsor

thedrever · Joined: 09 Jan 2008 Posts: 257 Location: Kent

Very disapointing there are less than 8 runners, so no each way return for 3rd place. Unfortunately with it being a grade 1 chase likely to be run on very soft ground this was inevitable. Look at the small but select fields for the Tingle Creek over the years.
There would almost certainly have been more runners had it remained a handicap, but no guatantee Twist Magic or another top 2 miler would have run. I know Dessie, Well Chief and Azertioup have run in it in the past, but the last two runnings have seen Oneway (Official Rating 155) and Dempsey (OR 150) as the top weights. So it's lacked star quality. I very much doubt Twist Magic would have run in a handicap giving lumps of weight away on heavy ground as a prep race for the champion chase. The same could be said for any of the other leading 2 milers, so you could easily have been left with a handicap with a top rating in the 150s like the last two seasons.
Top Irish chasers like Nickname were more likely to come over if it became a grade 1. Why travel over the Irish seas to give lumps of weight away? There are also lots of 2m graded chases in Ireland to be won, as Nickname has been doing.
As for the race itself if it takes place because of the weather. On heavy ground I'm not even sure Twist Magic will run. I liked Schindler's Hunt each way at 12-1 earlier in the week, but with place bets only paying 1st and 2nd now that bet has become unattractive.