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The Ultimate Grand National?
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Who's the winner?
Hedgehunter
46%
 46%  [ 6 ]
Lord Gyllene
7%
 7%  [ 1 ]
Monty's Pass
7%
 7%  [ 1 ]
Numbersixvalverde
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Bobbyjo
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Bindaree
7%
 7%  [ 1 ]
Silver Birch
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Earth Summit
7%
 7%  [ 1 ]
Papillon
7%
 7%  [ 1 ]
Amberleigh House
15%
 15%  [ 2 ]
Total Votes : 13

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supersov



Joined: 09 Oct 2006
Posts: 166



PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd go for Amberleigh House, he never got it wrong around Aintree and the weight would tell against Hedgehunter.
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thedrever



Joined: 09 Jan 2008
Posts: 257


Location: Kent

PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With the compression of the weights that 11st stat is going to be broken soon. Hedgehunter carried 11st 1lb to victory, but the last time a horse carried 11st 5lb was Red Rum! If he was in your Ultimate GN line-up he would have to be top weight, and maybe I would go for him.
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VitalEquine
Moderator


Joined: 08 Jan 2008
Posts: 636


Location: Nottingham

PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 9:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The last horse to carry 11stone 5lb to victory was Grittar in 1982. The only others rince Red Rum were Grittar, Corbiere (11-4) in '83, Rhyme N' Reason (11-0) in '88 and Hedgehunter (11-1) in '05. Not very many in 30 years. That's why I avoid horses with a lot of weight in the National.
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thedrever



Joined: 09 Jan 2008
Posts: 257


Location: Kent

PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spot on VitalEquine. I meant to say the last horse that carried over 11st 5lb to victory was Red Rum who carried 11st 8lb in 1977. That last top weight to oblige was Red Rum in 1974 carrying a whopping 12st.
The only horse I've backed in recent years carrying over 11st was Hedgehunter and he only had 11st 1lb.
So only 1 horse in the last 23 runnings (1984-2007) of the GN has carried over 11st to victory. That is a massive stat to consider when trying to pick a winner. However things are changing with the handicapper supressing the weights more now, so I think we will see more horses carrying over 11st to victory than previously in future years.
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sharkenergy



Joined: 24 Jan 2008
Posts: 120



PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

VitalEquine wrote:
I backed Red Maraurder E/W @ 33-1 that year! Is it monsoon conditions for this fictional running? If so then he's got a chance again!


Me too. I really fancied him for the race, although obviously the way it unfolded led to his victory. I had a £5 e/w at 33s.


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