I sincerely hope that Kauto does not win this year, not because I don't rate him, but because it will more than likely mean the race has been run at a crawl for the first circuit, yet the chances of this are thankfully low given that three of the major opposition to him need a steady consistent pace to be shown at their best. Denman, Exotic Dancer and Madison Du Berlais definitely will want the race to be run at a good clip so that they have the opportunity to shine. The problem for them is that they all have serious questions about their chances, which could lead to another large priced winner of this race. Who is this setting it all up for, why Albertas Run of course! Another former RSA winner, who though he does need a faster surface than raced on last time, has the unrated Dominic Elsworth on his back, and has a trainer who seems to be getting his horses back to form. 25/1 available earlier in the week is all gone, now generally 16s and 20s.
Excellent analysis of the race, JR, and am more and more beginning to look at Alberta's Run.
As I have stated on another thread, I don't see what all the fuss about Alberta's Run is about. McCoy said after last years RSA Chase that it was an average race and, if you look at the horses in behind (Roll Along, Battlecry, Silverburn), you would have to agree.
Also, having seen the race again, either he was idling really badly on the run-in or didn't really get home, as he did not put any further distance between himself, Silverburn (widely regarded as not staying the trip) and Battlecry (probably does not get the Cheltenham trip either) on the run-in and Roll Along was gaining ground hand over fist.
His jumping also worries me and he won't get away with the mistakes in the Gold Cup, even on good ground.
Am tempted to lay for a place. _________________ Bring on the jumps!!!
As I have stated on another thread, I don't see what all the fuss about Alberta's Run is about. McCoy said after last years RSA Chase that it was an average race and, if you look at the horses in behind (Roll Along, Battlecry, Silverburn), you would have to agree.
Also, having seen the race again, either he was idling really badly on the run-in or didn't really get home, as he did not put any further distance between himself, Silverburn (widely regarded as not staying the trip) and Battlecry (probably does not get the Cheltenham trip either) on the run-in and Roll Along was gaining ground hand over fist.
His jumping also worries me and he won't get away with the mistakes in the Gold Cup, even on good ground.
Am tempted to lay for a place.
Good point, yet he did manage to finish a good second in the King George, his one good performance this season, when he was able to race on the sound surface needed to show the his best. That is Grade 1 form with noted performers all around the place, so that is why I feel positive about his chances.
As I have stated on another thread, I don't see what all the fuss about Alberta's Run is about. McCoy said after last years RSA Chase that it was an average race and, if you look at the horses in behind (Roll Along, Battlecry, Silverburn), you would have to agree.
Also, having seen the race again, either he was idling really badly on the run-in or didn't really get home, as he did not put any further distance between himself, Silverburn (widely regarded as not staying the trip) and Battlecry (probably does not get the Cheltenham trip either) on the run-in and Roll Along was gaining ground hand over fist.
His jumping also worries me and he won't get away with the mistakes in the Gold Cup, even on good ground.
Am tempted to lay for a place.
Good point, yet he did manage to finish a good second in the King George, his one good performance this season, when he was able to race on the sound surface needed to show the his best. That is Grade 1 form with noted performers all around the place, so that is why I feel positive about his chances.
Arguably, it was a good run, but he finished alongside VPU, who is not a 3-miler, and Kempton is a flat track. I am still to be convinced that AR will properly get the trip. _________________ Bring on the jumps!!!
As I have said before with regards to Alberta's Run I think he is purely ground dependant,
Having returned to Kempton the scene of his best performance of the season by far he was 26 (i think) lengths behind Denman but the ground was not to his liking as it wasn't in the Hennesey either whereas it was in the King George.
Anything but good going and Alberta's run can be safely dismissed IMO.
Was watching the discussion panel on attheraces.com and part of the gold cup was an interview with Paul Nicholls and he states that Kauto looks to have lost some of his speed. I found this quite interesting as this was his main attribute, if he's lost some of that then what has he got in order to win the gold cup?
WAR OF ATTRITION, winner of the race three years ago, will miss the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday.
His trainer Mouse Morris said on Monday morning: "War Of Attrition was found to be a bit jarred yesterday and we've decided not to send him to Cheltenham.
"We had him checked out and the scans were clear. That was good news, so we will wait and run him next in the Grand National."
War Of Attrition's defection from the Gold Cup means that there will be no Irish-trained contender this year.
Paul Nicholls believes conditions are very much turning in favour of Kauto Star as the nine-year-old bids to become the first horse to regain the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup crown.
Kauto Star looked set to dominate the blue riband for years to come when running out an impressive winner in 2007, but he had to give best to his stablemate Denman 12 months ago.
While the latter has endured well documented problems in the run-up to this year's renewal and was a big disappointment on his Kempton comeback, Kauto Star comes into the race on the back of his third success in the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day.
Nicholls saddled the first three home last year with Denman, Kauto Star and Neptune Collonges filling the places for the Ditcheat handler and he has solid claims of at least repeating the feat, as he is also responsible for Star De Mohaison and My Will.
"Kauto Star is fresh and well and has done everything right, while he's had a much better preparation this year," said Nicholls.
"He was beaten by a better horse on the day last year, but the statistic about no horse coming back to win the Gold Cup is there to be broken.
"The ground has come in his favour and he's in real good form. You couldn't go into a race with a horse better than he is at the moment.
"Denman won't mind decent ground, but I honestly don't know how he will run. There's no reason not to run him, but if he tanks off like last year, he won't get home. Sam (Thomas) will have to ride him as he finds him.
"The ground won't help Neptune Collonges, who likes plenty of cut in the ground, but he's in good form. Star De Mohaison will also like the ground. All being well after this, My Will will go for the Grand National."
Denman's joint-owner Paul Barber has his fingers tightly crossed that Denman can retain his title but admits he is not expecting a performance to match that of last year.
"I am looking forward to it. One hopes he is over his problems, but we won't really know until we run him over three miles two and a half furlongs tomorrow afternoon," said Barber.
"I would basically have said there were lots of things against him that day at Kempton. He wasn't fully wound up and I'm sure he's going to improve a lot on that.
"It's a long way to come from last year to this year. I'm not going to pretend that I'm expecting what happened last year is going to happen.
"Last year I thought we might win. This year I'm crossing my fingers."
Kauto Star's owner Clive Smith is also hoping for the best and believes a lighter campaign this time around will stand his charge in good stead.
"He's in great shape and as good as he can be," said his owner Clive Smith.
"He'd be the first horse to come back and win the Gold Cup. I'd be very impressed if he could do that. It's a strong race this year - no doubt about it.
"We've campaigned him differently to last year, so we missed out the Ascot Chase this time."
Neptune Collonges finished third behind his more exalted stable companions last year, but only a short-head denied him second place.
Jockey Christian Williams said: "I popped him over a few fences last weekend and it went well.
"If it was three miles at Kempton we wouldn't have a chance of beating Kauto Star but over three-miles-two round Cheltenham, you'd like to think that hopefully you'd have a chance.
"He's a very straightforward horse. If he ends up getting a lead off one or two then so be it but if he ends up making the running it doesn't matter."
David Pipe has his runner Madison Du Berlais in tip-top shape but is not confident about confirming Kempton form with Denman.
"It's great to have the fourth favourite in the Gold Cup," said the Nicholashayne trainer.
"We don't know what to make of the Kempton form. We might see a different Denman, but we go there with a realistic each-way chance. On official ratings we should finish fourth."
Exotic Dancer was second to Kauto Star in 2007 and fifth last year, but makes a third bid for glory fresh from victory in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
The Jonjo O'Neill-trained gelding would have returned to the Dublin track for the Hennessy Gold Cup early last month had the weather not delayed the race by a week.
"We didn't need to go for the Hennessy when it was rescheduled," said Barry Simpson, racing manager to owner Sir Robert Ogden.
"He was fit and all he has been doing is ticking over. Jonjo says he's in great shape and his horses are running well, so everything is fine."
Star De Mohaison also runs in the Ogden colours after missing an engagement on Tuesday due to the ground.
He
will now be ridden by Timmy Murphy after Paul Carberry suffered a heavy fall on Thursday
Simpson added: "He has the ability to travel in his races and he also has the ability to jump, which will do him a world of good in a championship race.
"The ground is drying out all the time and it could come right for him. I think the horse is good enough to run into a place.
"We're obviously disappointed that Paul can't ride but Timmy is available and is riding well at the moment."
Charlie Mann reports Air Force One to be in the form of his life ahead of what will be his first outing since injuring himself in the King George.
"He's as good as I can have him and he looks absolutely fantastic," said Mann.
"He's just got back in from his last blow and he's still in one piece. It's the first time I've ever looked forward to Friday the 13th I think!
"I couldn't be more pleased with our horse and the drying ground will help him."
Andrew Thornton's mount Miko De Beauchene is a big outsider for the blue riband but the jockey believes he has every chance of finishing in the prize-money
"He's had a lot of bad luck this year but at least last time we got a run into him round Haydock and really that was his first proper run of the season," said Thornton.
"He has certainly improved since then and schooled very well on Monday morning. Robert Alner was there to see him and he was very happy with everything.
"We're going there with a sporting chance and realistically he has a good chance of finishing in the first six. After that, who knows?"
Barry Geraghty will don the Royal silks on Barbers Shop and a victory for Nicky Henderson's charge would surely spark scenes never witnessed before at Prestbury park.
"He's improved (from last year) and I think he'll improve again," said Geraghty.
"It was a good performance at Sandown over three miles and I think he's crying out for three-two, he's there with a chance.
"It's a wide-open race but I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself."
Connections of the O'Neill-trained Albertas Run would like to see drier conditions ahead of the big race.
"Jonjo's very happy with him, but we just don't want any more rain," said Michael Meagher, racing manager to owner Trevor Hemmings.
"He likes the track, that won't be a problem. We've got our fingers crossed for drier ground."
189 Denman
188 Kauto Star
183 Exotic Dancer
183 Neptune Collonges
181 Madison Du Berlais
178 Alberta's Run
175 Halcon Genelardais
173 Snoopy Loopy
173 Star De Mohaison
169 Air Force One
169 Barbers Shop
Nailing my colours to the mast at this late stage I would have to say that I expect Kauto Star to win now given the performances of Nicholls horses today. Still hope almost anything beats it though!
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