Read over lunch that Nick Mordin, writing in today's 'Weekender', extols the belief that none of the top 5 in the betting for the race (Kauto, Denman, Neptune, Madison or Exotic Dancer) will win.
He rules out Kauto and the latter 3 because in the past 12 runnings of the race no horse has gone into it and won having had more than 13 races over fences - all of these 4 have run in more chases than this.
In fact Kauto is doubly ruled out by Mordin as another 'trend' he will have to overcome is that no horse has ever 're-gained' the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Denman he rules out, easily he says, because of his health problems and as he will be returning to the track so soon after running his worst ever race.
Given this less than 13 races over fences 'trend' he is obviously siding with the young brigade such as Barber's Shop, Air Force One and Big Buck's (Mr Nicholls are you reading this!).
Morden and his stats are pathetic, what makes a horse win a Gold Cup after 12 runs but not 13?
I love idiots who follow these sort of things, like the old Katchit stat, it just makes the races more profitable for those who believe in what they see and the formbook.
It will be between the big 4 (Madison will not even place) mark my words. _________________ Roll Of Honour
February 2008 Daily Tipping Competition Winner = £97 Profit
March 2008 Daily Tipping Competition Winner = £105 Profit
May 2008 Daily Tipping Competition Winner = no profit!!!
June 2008 Weekend Tipping Competition Winner = £409!! Profit
Nass, got to disagree with you on the above, old boy. Don't want to sound like a boring old History teacher here but we can all learn from previous races, and in fact anything that has happened in the past, as things that have happened repeatedly before can be expected to happen again and again.
I don't blindly follow trends and would recommend that others don't either but when they are as strong as 'no horse who has had more than 13 chase career starts has won the CGC in the past 12 years' then you have to sit up and take notice of this. Of course, if you have very strong beliefs about one then this won't deter you from wading in but it should make you stop and evaluate things for a moment or two.
Katchit as you identify obviously broke the 5 year-old hoo-doo last season but just think of how many horses that didn't. If you had been laying in the Champion Hurdle based on 'no 5 year-old' rule of late you would have one loser but dozens of winners! If Binocular wins this year though then that is one trend that won't be referred to for a while!
I like stats as well, but some of the stuff they come out with is ridiculous.
Take the 5 year old one, what it should be is that inexperienced horses seldom win a Champion Hurdle, and that is why Katchit won it, because he was battle hardened. This is why I would not back Binocular.
The 13 runs is rubbish, what logic does the idea show? Is there a difference between a horse on its 12 chase and its 13th?
I love the stats for the Grand National, and I follow stats but only ones that have logic behind them. If you are looking for stats then you can add whatever you like together to come up with the conclusion you want, hell I got two degrees by doing just that.
If your open minded you would not be looking for stats like the 13 runs one, because it has absolutely no logic. Morden tries to shoe horn things, and I really do not like it. _________________ Roll Of Honour
February 2008 Daily Tipping Competition Winner = £97 Profit
March 2008 Daily Tipping Competition Winner = £105 Profit
May 2008 Daily Tipping Competition Winner = no profit!!!
June 2008 Weekend Tipping Competition Winner = £409!! Profit
Nass, like you I do look at stats but not blindly.
However, the 13 run stat for the Gold Cup does have logic to it. It recognises that only very few horses can produce the sort of performance to win a Gold Cup and that this is done before they have been bottomed with lots of races. It also acknowledges that it is not possible for horses to keep that level of performance up for an extended period of races hence why there are very few repeat winners of it (Henrietta Knight's handling of Best Mate exemplified this).
I would agree that putting a line through a horse that has run fourteen times before would be foolhardy but the principal and logic is there.
Same with the 5yo stat for the Champion Hurdle. The logic of this is based purely on the relativite maturity of horses at this age. Most 5yo's are too weak to produce a performance to win a Champion Hurdle. I Personally I think the last years race was poor and that the stat will still stand although I would consider the faster maturing French breds.
Similar age stat applies in the world hurdle where no horse has been younger than 7yo. Again the logic is the relative maturity of horses. The only 6yos to place were French breds emphasing the point about potentially viewing them differently to IRE, GB & GER breds. I'd suggest USA breds are bred too speedily and consequently have few NH runners to consider. _________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
I really think Star De Mahasion has a great chance this year E/W 33/1 is insulting.
This horse is best in the spring and hasn't ran a race in the spring since his Sun Alliance win 3years ago.
So obviously he has had Injury problems but he is not a spent horse.
Finished second off top weight in a handicap this year and followed by finishing forth in the Pillar chase at Cheltenham on trials day.
He was crusing to just after two out but tired in the very testing ground, On good ground i think this a live outsider. _________________ Roll of honour
Cheltenham 2008 Tipster Champion
Football Tipping League Champion 2008
Scoop6 Comp Winner season2
Was just re-watching the Lexus. As much as Exotic Dancer has never done it before, I think he would of beaten Neptune even if he had not fallen. He was being niggled at, whereas Exotic was cruising just before the former fell. So I think wherever Neptune finishes Exotic may actually be infront of him. Love Neptune, but he is a dour galloper, doesn't have the class of the others.
I must say i quite like some of Mordin's analysis and whilst you can argue all day about the relative merits of the 12 runs analysis, one fact that cannot be ignored is that NO horse has lost his GC crown and regained it!
I will say this till I am blue in the face, Kauto Star will not win the GC and IMO will be a decent lay at 1/10 to not even be placed. The Gold Cup it won was run at a crawl and if they had gone any gallop at all then Exotic would have done him up the hill. Fast forward 12 months and Denman exposed the serious stamina flaws in Kauto. I cant see them dossing this year either, they now know how to beat Kauto, so it will be a true test.
My 3 against the field are;
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
stable back in form, loves the track, right age and profile and should get the trip. Will be ridden positively and will help to expose Kauto's stamina problems. Huge price for a horse full of potential.
BARBER SHOP
Course form is strong, loves decent ground and trained by Henderson, all big positives. I think this horse is actually an out and out stayer who will love the trip. Sure to be well ridden and a sound jumper.
EXOTIC DANCER
finally comes into this race with his stable in tip top form. AP in the saddle always a plus and was crawling all over Neptune in the Lexus Chase, when that one fell.
My advice is back the above 3 e/w and lay Nicholls not to have the winner...........................
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