Already doing a thread like this - called Cheltenham 2009, in the Cheltenham section, where the prices of the major contenders for the Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase are being tracked.
As for the percentage book, it is impossible to truly get the score on any antepost market as reallistically they only price the top 12-20 horses.
Hi parky. yeah I am struggling to achieve what I thought was easy when I first posted.
I don't agree with you about the number of horses in the ante post book, for the big races especially there is a pretty full book already.
However what I certainly don't want to do is tread on your toes with your other thread.
Quite happy to have a discussion with you though as it means that picture appears plenty!
In terms of percentage, what I think I want to achieve is to show that the amouunt of the book taken up at the top of the market will rise and rise and rise especially when NRNB comes in mid-late February.
I am just not convinced I know how to show this yet.
Option 1 - I pick a ceiling price per race and list how much of the book is below that price throughout the winter. This seems a bit random.
Option 2 - I list the top X in each market and the total of the book they are taking. Again what is X ? Slightly random.
Option 3 - I list how many horses take the market to 100% and see how that number shrinks
I put the first two races up last night before I thought of option 3, but not sure if anyone thinks this is useful.
See what today brings in terms of comments.
Personally, I think that tracking the ante-post prices is a good idea both in terms of moves in the market (either way) and the overall % that the book offers (in an ideal wordl the overall % would be less than 100% and therefore enable us to back every horse and therefore be guaranteed a profit - but those ruthless and clever bookie chappies are wise enough to ensure this never happens!). The latter is very helpful to as it can be used to identify overall value/no value in the market.
What I will do when I update the prices next month is give a breakdown of the percentage covered by the top 10 in the book at that time.
This is a great idea for us to study, as you are right to point out, that there has to be some form of value in the prices as we go, it's just a case of searching through the mire that the bookies like to throw at us all the time.
If you have any other thoughts about what we should be looking at, let us all know and we can se if there really is some value out there to be found.
Actually Dunfie I think you may find that overall there is much less value in the market at present than on the morning of the race. Have a look at the Ante Post list now with anything up to 50 or more possibles and look at the over round (not sure if this actually shown in the Racing Post) but it will be at least 160% at present. And of course the majority of the runners quoted will be non runners or never prove good enough to line up on the day.
I think the most intresting thing would be to monitor the top 10 as you suggest and see how many of them make it the race and by how much their price moves. Overall I suspect that you would be better off keeping your money in your pocket until the day for those ten. _________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
Actually Dunfie I think you may find that overall there is much less value in the market at present than on the morning of the race. Have a look at the Ante Post list now with anything up to 50 or more possibles and look at the over round (not sure if this actually shown in the Racing Post) but it will be at least 160% at present. And of course the majority of the runners quoted will be non runners or never prove good enough to line up on the day.
I think the most intresting thing would be to monitor the top 10 as you suggest and see how many of them make it the race and by how much their price moves. Overall I suspect that you would be better off keeping your money in your pocket until the day for those ten.
You make a very good point there, tetinj, old boy.
I have already quoted the example of Katchit in last seasons Campion Hurdle - his SP of 10/1 was actually the biggest price he had been for 6 months!
Consequently, my ante-post staking plan will need tweaking or even abandoning this season.
Thought I would have a review of this now that the winners are known. The October market makes interesting reading and as suspected the Ante post market ultimately offered no value on a winning horse other than Master Minded and 5/4 in October seems a fair price just to see him still be in one piece six months later.
As a consequence I will definitely not be having any Ante Post bets for Cheltenham in future until the initial declarations are made. At that point I suspect, for well informed/smarter ones of us, there is genuine value in some of the h'caps. I doubt the novice races offered much value as so many horses were double/triple entered.
The championship races are mature markets by January and I noticed a lot of the favourites (MM excepted) lengthen in price in the last few days prior to the festival (Binocular was very noticeable in this regard).
Any observations from others?
_________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
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