Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 8:05 am Post subject: The Open
Have any of the well respected great golfing minds on here got any views on the forthcoming Major to be played at Turnberry????
I note that in yesterday’s ‘Observer’ a strong case was made for backing Kenny Perry at 50/1. They detailed how he is a ‘cussed individual’ who will be doing everything he can to win as a result of all the critiscm he received for missing last years event.
I’ve always had a soft spot for Ernie Els and usually, for one reason or another, end up backing Miguel Angel Jimenez as well. I see that they are currently 40/1 and 125/1 respectively.
I was also very impressed by the German lad Kaymer who triumphed at Loch Lomond over the weekend. 33/1 seems quite fair although it is obviously asking a lot for him to win 3 heats on the bounce.
Although I do enjoy a good hack around a few local courses from time to time I’m no expert at golf and as I only ever bet on the Majors would bow to any advice offered.
This is a strange tournament to try to predict this year as the one man that I really think could take it home is Phil Mickleson, yet he is back in the US with his wife who is now recovering from surgery for her cancer.
In his absence Tiger Woods is a strong 2/1 favourite and clearly in good form, winning his most recent start and eventually putting together a challenge for the last major although he was one of the most affected by the weather so can be provided with an excuse for not winning that one.
Thinking back to the US Open, consideration should be given to Richie Ramsay who set the pace for the first 3 rounds and is now a 300/1 chance.
Another in this bracket is J-B Holmes, who is a talent not inlike John Daly, but is one player that just makes me think future major winner in the same way that Angel Cabrera is...he hits it a long way but can be just as likely to get a 7 as a birdie, hence the price.
Of the guys in the middle of the pack it was pleasing to see Adam Scott near the top of the leaderboard once again, yet his old problem of having 3 good rounds and one bad'un was still in evidence at Loch Lomond. 50/1 is skinny odds for him.
Retief Goosen is available at 33/1 and is coming back to something like his best form and is the man that I believe will win this week, when his putter is hot, he's just about the best there is.
Of the Brits I would consider backing Justin Rose to be top placed of them, no price seen yet but would expect to see 16/1 in all honesty.
Will add some more thoughts once more markets open up...
On the basis that I back them every time in a major and they have given me good runs i have gone:
1. Two each ways on KJ Choi at 80s and 125/1 respectively. Long term readers will know how much he owes me at majors.
2. Sergio Each way at 22s...yes i know his brother plays the last nine at the open but one year he might just do it.
2. 50P Each Way yankee on KJ top RoW at 22s, Anders Hansen 22s top European without GB, Rose 25s top Brit, Justin Leonard Top USA without Woods 22s. This bet pays over 185,000. I do like this type of bet because of the value and possible never out of it scenario if they all make cut. It can be interesting to look at the leaderboard on the final day and seeing your player well down the list but still in the each way section.
Did hear an interesting fact that at last three Turnberry Opens the respective number 1s at that time. ie Watson, Norman and faldo all won. The 2s might look big for Woods on that basis but not worth it for the amount I put on.
As an aside. Me and my 15 handicapper mate played 9 holes match played last night vs another 11 handicapper and a "mate" said to be an 18 handicapper. They refused to take the shots we offered. I played the nine in 1 over par and played as well as i can......we halved the match. Best 18 handicpper i have ever seen.
OnlyOne, there was a huge tip for KJ Choi in the 'Sports betting' section of 'The Sun' today. They gave 2 tips re the Leader at the end of round 1 namely Greg Norman at 150/1 and KJ at 125/1.
Your each-way yankee sounds a good idea re the reasons that you outline. Interesting to see that both you and JR have gone for Rose in the 'Top Brit' market.
KJ is an enigma. Twice in the last few years he and Sergio have either led or been near the top of the leaderboard going into the last day only to fall away on the last day. I still see his hand reaching for his ball on the 18th when out of bounds on the last when even a double bogey would have won me £200. I think he took an 8.
I have said for years that one day KJ will win a major but, after all the times i have backed him, it will need 125s for me to get my money back.
Seriously though. look at the each way yankee as an interest bet.
Before i go putting any money on the golf can someone just help to clear up the each way betting.
You have the winner outright, so there is the 1st from however many positions bookies give you each way.
Using William Hill for example they are paying out each way upto 5 places.
If 4 now go an finish tied second are they along with the winner the 5 that get paid out on, or is it for every golfer who finished within the 4 best scores of the winner?
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