Posted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 1:37 pm Post subject: Just over 9 months to go...
Strange I know, but I started to plan Cheltenham 2010, probably 5 minutes after the Gold Cup, even before Kauto Star was in the winners enclosure. Maybe not strange, but maybe shows my love for the place, a theatre of dreams if you will, and if I wasn't married with kids, would probably have my ashes laid to rest there, hopefully after many a year to come.
So, my plans for 2010. Well I started with the Anti Post betting obviously. I like to have some decent money rolling on to my main fancies, built up slowly over time. Dangerious and risky yes, but I've had plenty of success.
Firstly I wanted Dunguib in the Supreme, terrible price @ 7/2, and Bumper winners have a shocking record, but god he was impressive, he he taked to hurdles, he could be special. Had £10 Double England to beat Andorra -5 @ 9/5 in a double with Dunguib at 7/2, then a £10 Double Mastercraftsman @ 5/6 for the St James with Dunguib at 7/2. A decent start.
The Champion Hurdle looks a two horse race for me, in one Corner Binocular, who I believe was given a poor ride by the McCoy last time, ridden with far too much confidence. Had a £20 double, Burnley to get relegated at 8/13 and Binocular at 13/2. My second horse is Hurricane Fly, just how good is he, I don't know, but I don't think you can hide the fact he looked a world better at Punchestown. I've had a £20 single at 4/1, and a £10 Double Mastercraftsman at 5/4 for the St James and HF at 4/1.
The Wiorld Hurdle, Big Bucks is good, brave and tough, but the class for me is Kasbah Bliss, god he was poor this year. 13/2 is far to big for me, had £5 Double Paco Boy for the Queen Anne at 7/2, with KB at 13/2. Also, had a £5 Double Yeats at 3/1 with KB at 13/2.
Champion Chase, is Master Minded regressing? I don't know, but seems to be doing what's needed. Made a fortune backing him Anti Post last year, I won't desert him ,but evens is short, lets be fair. Had verious trebles, 4-Folds, all resting on young Amir Khan to win the WBA title next Saturday in Manchester 9got tickets also), all then hopefully going onto Master Minded.
Others are only small interests. Mad Max and Captain Cee Bee for the Arkle at 49/1, and Ashkazer at 59/1, they might not be able to jump yet, but proper bragging rights if they turn up on the day with a decent fighting chance.
As for the Festival itself, planning is underway. Looking at the Tuesday and Wednesday this year. Will travel from Leeds early Tuesday morning, 5.30am start. Into Cheltenham for 8.00am, hopefully a good day at the races, then I'm thinking of a travel Lodge in Worcester (The Travel Lodge prices in Cheltenham and Gloucester are upto £150 per night, there not daft!). Back down on Wednesday, again another 7 winners :-), then back to Leeds at around 10pm.
God i'm excited, and it's an age away, but you have to look forward to something! _________________ I bet Jamie is the only one in the Spencer household that gives a bad ride!
Daily Premiership Champ - April, June, Sept & Oct 2008, May, Sept 2009
Weekend Champ - Dec 2008, Jan, Feb, May, July, Aug, Sept 2009
Daily Championship Champ - Dec 2008
The Gold Cup, hard to oppose him isn't it. Very hard to get away from the Champ, trading at 5/2 on Betfair. Providing they stick to the plan of 3 races per year, just like Bestie, I see no reason to see why he can't win 2 more, and this is coming from a man that thought he's gone after his run at haydock last year.
Denman will be interesting, a cracking run last year, but disappointed at Aintree, but I think Nicholls knows he fu*ked up there, a flat, speed circuit would never have suited. 8/1 E/W is tempting, a place again?
Sorry, nothing jumps out at me, Big Bucks will win a Gold Cup one day, maybe 2/3 years away, b ut surely he'll stay hurdling till the top two fade away.
Nothing coming from Ireland, Cooldine beat little at Cheltenham, and flopped at Punchestown. _________________ I bet Jamie is the only one in the Spencer household that gives a bad ride!
Daily Premiership Champ - April, June, Sept & Oct 2008, May, Sept 2009
Weekend Champ - Dec 2008, Jan, Feb, May, July, Aug, Sept 2009
Daily Championship Champ - Dec 2008
Old boy, the Festival is actually closer than you think. Its 8 months away not 9.
I said it on here before but I think Cooldine is something special. His win in the RSA Chase at last years Festival took my breath away and the current quotes of 12/1 are quite generous (wouldn't bother taking them yet though as I can't see much movement in this market taking place until late October at the earliest). I'd totally forget his Punchestowns run as he'd had enough for the season by then. Could this horse being the one to end Ruby's cosy relationship with both Mr Mullins and Mr Nicholls?? Becuase if Cooline and Kauto (or another of Mr Nicholls' charges) are disputing favourtism then there will be an enormous battle to secure his services.
The only beast that I am on thus far is as said previously on here Walkon in the Champion Hurdle at 33/1.
Still waiting on a quote for Vino Griego re the Supreme Novices. Looked out of the top drawer when he won his bumper at Ascot last winter and the fact that he was then put away (rather than chase the big pots in the bumper sphere) as his future lies over timber speaks volumes. If asked to nominate one to follow for 2009/10 it would be this one as the sky, as they say, could be the limit for him.
Cooldine is a horse that interests me greatly, he seemed to win the RSA with plenty in hand, although the challenge of Kauto and Denman is a couple of levels up from that. I believe he has a fair mark so the Hennessy should be on the cards, after that can any real cliams to the blue riband be considered.
I really think that Celestial Halo is the one for Binocular and Hurricane Fly to fear in the Champion Hurdle. His end to end gallop was exceptional, and given that he is going to improve again from 5 to 6, I expect him to be right there at the business end once again.
One horse that really made an impression on me towards the end of last season was Tataniano when taking a 2m Nov hurdle at Cheltenham, having previously been beaten by Diamond Harry over 2 1/2m on trials day. I expect the Arkle to be his target, although this is just my suppositions.
The other to watch out for is of course Solwhit, winner at both Aintree and Punchestown and a definite improver to follow wherever he goes.
As for getting to the festival next year, that is definitely not on the cards for yours truly as I will be embarking around that time for the second half of my honeymoon to South Africa, so will need to play around carefully with travel dates so that I don't miss too much of the festivities.
Hopefully finances will be better in 2010 and I can look forward to going on the first three days again.
I can see yet another strong Irish performance next year and already have Solwhit down as the most likely Champion Hurdle prospect but still respect Punjabi.
I think Aran Concerto will show what an amazing horse he is and hope that Mikael D'Haguenat and Pandorama both go novice chasing as I can't seem them getting beaten by anyone other than each other.
I have a fancy that Cappa Bleu will prove to be a very good recruit to racing under rules and may yet do a Cool Dawn. _________________ Thinking differently is the only way to win at this game. Even if it makes you look a fool sometimes!
fantastic. Great thread.
Dunguib is a machine, but now there are doubts if he is a legal or a drug enhanced machine. Hopefully the former. I am on at 7/2 for the Supreme, set the week off in style.
Big Bucks & Kauto will retain, of that I have no concerns whatsoever. Only injury can beat either of them.
Another Irish machine is Mikael D'Haguenet for certain. Like this year, I feel he will win whatever is put in front of him, be it Arkle or Sun Alliance.
Finally, will it be 3rd time lucky at Cheltenham for Binocular? I hope so but that Hurricane Fly did look oh so special. I can't have Punjabi again, nor Celestial Halo, but it depends on the first day watering policy as always.
Wish it was 8 days not months..... have to watch this drivel on the flat in the meantime.
here here dunfie bored with the flat stuff now royal ascot has gone.
with regards to your predictions I dont think Kauto is a shoe in. Im not saying that Denman WILL be but there are a few factors that could affect that race.
First of all Ruby Walsh. He will have the choice of two rides. One with each of his boss's. where will his loyalty lie?
also with the departure of Exotic Dancer perhaps Denman will have a certain AP on board with no real contenders in the McManus colours. If this is the case you can certainly back a better ride than what Sam Thomas gave the tank last gold cup day
There is the weather of course, Denman would go better than Kauto on anything soft.
Big fan of Binocular but dont think he quite makes it up the hill. Wouldn't count out Punjabi, afterall the best thing that you can do when betting at the festival is go on past course form, especially festival form.
Arkle looks good with two potential big names in Sizing Europe and Crack Away Jack going chasing too.
I dont know about wishing it being in 8 days but i do with it was run once a month!
well Matt , I am more than happy to discuss from now till March why Kauto cannot be beaten, barring injury and that clown Thomas on his back.
Last year I think it was tetinj who discussed this with me (but didn't offer me the 3/1 I requested ) then finally agreed on Kauto's greatness at about 3:45 on March 13th, though it may have been yourself?
I am as sure as I can be without knowing Ruby that he will never, ever desert Kauto. Even when the horse clearly wasn't fit in 2008 he took the ride, and, good as Cooldine may be, I still can't imagine Ruby watching somebody else get the leg up on the Star.
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, I am more than happy to discuss from now till March why Kauto cannot be beaten, barring injury and that clown Thomas on his back.